BC celebrates a sharp, stirring leaders debate in an uplifting election campaign
Just kidding
Hello subscribers and other astute visitors to the page!
Only five sleeps until we learn whose hands will be gripping the wheel of our big, beautiful province for the next four years.
Amid the flood of campaign rhetoric in what looks like a pretty ferocious attack-campaign, we’d like to narrow your focus to the party leaders, by way of a few profiles we did.
David Eby: activist, lawyer, premier
First up is a Q&A with NDP leader David Eby from an interview I did with him last December, a year after he took John Horgan’s place and ascended to the premier’s office. More of a fast-paced conversation than a profile, since Eby wasn’t quite as accessible as premier as he was when attorney general.
Because time with Eby was limited – 10 minutes allotted, 17 minutes granted – we narrowed the conversation to two topics.
The first was what Nanaimo Mayor Leonard Krog called “the social issue of our times,” which is basically the convergence of opioid addiction, brain injury, mental health issues and crime overwhelming our communities and healthcare facilities.
The second topic was the tension between Eby’s activist roots and perspective – he led both Pivot Legal and the BC Civil Liberties Society – and his role as premier, governing all the people of the province.
You might find some of his responses surprising.
Sonia Furstenau: Shaking up the status quo
In 2022, we published a profile of Sonia Furstenau following hours and hours (and hours!) of interviews with people who know her and with Furstenau herself. One of the first stories we published when Northern Beat launched.
More than two years later, this in-depth piece still holds true, revealing a glimpse of the leader of the BC Greens as a person, her motivations for being a politician and her vision for the party.
Photographer extraordinaire, Chad Hipolito, contributed the visuals.
John Rustad: Phoenix from the ashes
Last month, Chad and I teamed up again, this time for a profile of John Rustad, who, in less than two years, led the Conservative Party from near political oblivion to becoming the only obstacle between the NDP and a majority government.
This story seemed particularly important, because unlike Eby and Furstenau, polling revealed many British Columbians had no idea who Rustad was when the election began. We wrangled a couple days with him on the pre-campaign road to see him in action.
The profile attempts to understand his remarkable trajectory and the party’s meteoric rise, from less than two percent of the popular vote in 2020 to neck-and-neck with the BC NDP in a battle to form government.
Leaders debate
What effect the leaders debate had on voter perceptions is hard to say judging by the polling numbers. Which is interesting because post-debate media coverage was definitely bruising for Rustad. Areas where he got hammered, the other two got a pass.
Rustad was derided for his appearance, speaking style and for not landing a knock-out punch. The latter of which may have been Rustad’s biggest infraction, according to critics.
He didn’t counterattack when Eby came at him, chirp chirp chirp, interrupting every second word. Nor did he defend himself when Furstenau launched cutting personal attacks (uncharacteristically for her), accusing Rustad of living back in 1957 and lacking imagination. As well, studio acoustics left Rustad barely audible and Furstenau somewhat piercing.
“The decried, denounced Rustad was mild-mannerly and soft-spoken to a fault, letting himself be interrupted and “Left-splained” in early-to-mid-sentence all show,” described Kirk Lapointe in a recent Hub column.
Tired though the excuses sound, we expected Eby to deflect from his government’s dismal record to the BC Liberals before him – it’s been a central plank of the NDP’s election campaign. But watching Furstenau glance over seven years of NDP government – don’t criticize the party you’re trying to usurp votes from? – to also blame the BC Liberals was a political manoeuvre to behold.
It probably worked. As did Eby’s strategy to not let Rustad finish a sentence. On the same topic, an interesting moment came during one of the few times Furstenau interrupted Eby – he didn’t know what to do. Eventually he stopped talking. Which was basically Rustad’s reaction when Eby pulled the same technique on him.
What the average voter thinks viewing these dysfunctional dynamics from their political leaders, if they see clips from the debate at all, is hard to say. Maybe they were just left wondering, ‘Was that a debate? What happened to the exchange of ideas and visions for the future?’
To assess the leaders debates for yourself, watch the TV debate on CBC or listen to the earlier live CKNW radio debate. Simon Little from Global News had a decent round-up of the debate as well.
Candidate attack campaign
Candidates are the Conservatives' achilles heel and the NDP know it.
When the Conservatives began climbing in the polls last year, Rustad was convinced Eby would call an early election. The NDP were riding high in popularity and expected to cruise into another majority government.
“If I had been them, I would have dropped the writ in March,” Rustad told me recently, still sounding surprised they didn’t.
That left the Conservatives with less than 12 months to pull together 93 candidates from across the province, while constructing a campaign machine, while building up the party’s infrastructure across BC and while developing its policy platform.
In the end, Conservatives filled their candidate slate before the NDP. And they attracted some very strong contenders in the mix, including former BC United MLAs Elenore Sturko, Peter Milobar, Lorne Doerkson, Trevor Halford, Ian Paton and Teresa Wat, as well as strong or known political entities like Gwen O’Mahony, Yuri Fulmer, Chris Sankey, Á’a:líya Warbus and Gavin Dew, to name a few.
It’s the handful of other candidates getting dissected under the BC NDP’s high-powered microscopes who are dragging down party fortunes. With each unearthed post expressing strange or disturbing views, the NDP hope to land a devastating hit.
Rustad says none of the social media posts by his candidates are firing offences. In a race this tight, Conservatives can’t afford to drop any candidates. It would basically hand the riding to the NDP.
But how much damage the ongoing incoming artillery will cost the larger Conservative campaign remains to be seen. Vaughn Palmer says candidate problems are hurting Rustad’s credibility.
Ultimately, the burning question for voters may boil down to whether they’re more sick of the NDP or more scared of the Conservatives.
Strange bedfellows
Remarkably, in the middle of this political imbroglio that is Election 2024, we find an unlikely friendship has blossomed. The last holdouts in the BC United camp achieved what the party so rarely could in Opposition – they worked harmoniously with the NDP toward a common goal. To tear down the Conservatives.
In late September, BC United research on Conservative candidates began leaking out to various NDP-friendly media outlets. Over several days, a few hundred pages of deep background research came to light. The NDP have used this treasure trove, along with their own archeological findings of social media postings from years gone by, as the centrepiece of their relentless candidate smear campaign.
Despite Kevin Falcon’s last-minute efforts to unite the right, the anybody-but-those-f’n-Conservatives BCU loyalists got their revenge, even if they fell short of their goal.
On the other hand
In another riveting twist to this corkscrew of an election tale, some pundits had predicted voting numbers would be down, showing higher apathy or cynicism than usual.
Instead, the opposite is happening.
On Oct. 11, the first day of advanced voting, British Columbians turned out in droves. More than 171,000 British Columbians voted on day one, equivalent to nine per cent of all votes cast in 2020, and 45 per cent higher than the previous first-day high in the 2017 election. [Which, coincidentally, was the last time BC had a minority government]
Across the Okanagan, an important battleground for both parties, almost twice as many ballots were cast on the first day compared to 2017, according to Castanet in Kelowna.
After two days, 320,00 BCers had voted.
Strong voter turnout is common in a contested campaign apparently. Some pundits say it is indicative of voters who know their mind and want to get their vote registered already. Alternatively, it can happen when voters are particularly motivated to kick a party out of office.
Polling also suggests voter engagement is unusually high, with 87 per cent of BC residents surveyed indicating they are likely to vote and 65 per cent saying they will "definitely vote." By comparison, about 50 per cent of eligible voters cast a ballot in the 2020 election.
Voting Intentions
As it stands now, the BC NDP and BC Conservatives are still too close to call, with the NDP currently holding a one per cent lead in the popular vote, and a seven seat lead in seat projection, according to 338Canada as of Oct. 13. The NDP generally leads in Metro Vancouver and Vancouver Island, while the Conservatives are ahead in the Fraser Valley, Southern BC, and Northern BC.
This is a slight shift from the previous week when the Conservatives had an edge over the New Democrats.
Other election-related stories:
There’s an interesting profile of Eby by the Globe and Mail’s Justine Hunter and a high-level taster plate of party policies by Lori Culbert et al. at the Vancouver Sun. Go to the party websites directly for more details on their policies: BC NDP, Conservative Party of BC, BC Green Party.
For a good read, try any of these columns about ongoing election issues by Vaughn Palmer, here, here and here.
From Northern Beat we have… Geoff Russ on forestry with an informative piece on BC’s “Stump belt,” He says forestry votes count more than ever. Rob Shaw spoke to the Conservatives camp about their last minute sprint to get the vote out against an NDP election machine that has been preparing for this moment for months. And for a view from the north, give Todd Corrigall’s latest column a read, Promises, policies and plastic straws.
A riding to watch
When Sonia Furstenau switched ridings from Shawnigan Lake to Victoria Beacon Hill, pundits shook their heads. No way Furstenau could win that riding. It’s an NDP stronghold as much as Victoria is an NDP town. Remarkably, the latest poll from Mainstreet last week put Furstenau in the lead for the first time in the campaign.
Furstenau has a few advantages over her competitors, Grace Lore and Tim Thielmann. The Green Party has poured resources into getting Furstenau re-elected, she is well-known from serving two terms in government, and enjoys the provincial profile of a party leader. Furstenau’s performance in last week’s debate was rated well by many which likely gave her campaign a boost.
Furstenau continues to pitch herself and her Green colleagues (should they get elected) as the balancing force the legislature needs to keep the Conservatives and the NDP in check. She is a hardworking, intelligent, articulate legislator with integrity, but it is hard to imagine she could balance out the other two parties, sitting so far to the left of NDP as the Greens do.
It is equally difficult to imagine her aligning with the Conservatives on any issue, after her personal criticisms of John Rustad and dismissiveness of his party’s policies.
All that said, the race is not won just yet. On the one hand, Furstenau has BC Conservative Tim Thielmann, a sharp-witted, well-informed lawyer who specialized in rights and title law. On the other is the big, well-oiled, union-attended NDP machine.
Victoria Beacon Hill is definitely on our watch list.
BC NDP vs Elections BC
For a peak behind the curtain to see the unholy lengths to which the BC NDP are willing to go to extinguish every single bit of perceived advantage the Conservatives might have, we present the party’s lawsuit/petition against Elections BC.
The BC NDP want Elections BC to change the ‘Conservatives’ on the ballot to ‘BC Conservatives.’ And they took the independent Elections BC office to court to do it.
“How could a party that’s been in government seven years, who is railing against the importation of American-style politics where the very legitimacy of the voting process is under attack, possibly think it was a good idea to challenge the independent judgement of Elections BC mid-campaign?” writes Rob Shaw for The Orca.
CTV’s Rob Buffam had an update on this story on Oct. 11:
“NDP didn’t succeed in changing provincial conservative name on ballot to include reference to BC. Court dismissed the application to hear the matter on an emergency basis. NDP say petition remains filed & valid, and it will continue with same court action after the election.”
Don’t forget to vote
Advance polls have opened. Avoid the Election Day crush by dropping your X in the ballot box sometime this week. Either way, this race is tight. Every voice counts, so don’t forget to exercise your democratic prerogative and vote!
While you’re planning your election night soiree, I’ll need to decide which campaign headquarters to crash… stay tuned.
That’s all for now. Thanks as always for reading. Consider becoming a paid subscriber if you aren’t already – all funds go to our beleaguered freelance writers.
Until next time, keep your head down and your wits about you, there’s muckery afoot!
Fran
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