Muddier by the minute
What's that smell?
Dear subscribers and fellow scholars of political skullduggery.
The election process is getting muddier, like barnyard mucky, where you’re doing your best to avoid getting splattered but realize you should’ve worn boots and a top you didn’t like.
Regardless, here we are, one quarter into Election 2024, a spectacle you literally can’t take your eyes off. So, deep breath, and let’s slop through this together. I promise there’ll be a place to hose off near the end.
Let’s kick this off with some polling data (refreshingly straightforward – neither emotionally manipulative nor laden with implied wrongdoing).
The earth moved under their feet
How quickly the landscape has shifted beneath NDP feet.
Just a few months ago, the party was cruising easily into its third term and second majority. And now Premier David Eby and his team are locked in a pitched battle for their political lives. The inimitable Vaughn Palmer has an insightful review of the party’s predicament and his video conversation with Vancouver Sun Managing Editor Harold Munro has more excellent insights (on the same page).
A particularly interesting observation of Vaughn’s was how the NDP have had every advantage in this election: a majority government facing off against a party that barely existed two years ago; endless announcements (and re-announcements) on the government’s dime, giving away literally $billions in goodies to nearly every demographic and community in the province; a gigantic war chest that eclipses their competition $8 million to $200K according to the Conservatives (not to mention a bottomless pit of months-long, union-financed attack ads and their army of unionized volunteers), and hundreds of pages of BC United research that micro-scoped through the back history of Conservative candidates. All of which has culminated into the NDP pounding on Rustad’s integrity many times a day reminding voters again and again and again how bad he is, how much he’ll cut, how risky his government will be…
And yet…
Despite their Goliath-sized advantage in almost every aspect of the campaign, the NDP are hanging by their fingernails, barely tied in the polls. What interesting times.
Let’s go to British Columbians for some answers.
The POLLS
NDP: You’re doing a terrible job, but here’s a raise
Recent surveys show the NDP remain strong in much of Metro Vancouver and southern Vancouver Island despite taking a beating over their performance on key issues like cost of living, housing affordability, homelessness and public safety.
Party leader David Eby remains most favoured as premier with little change recently, although he is now seen to be cynically ‘playing politics’ by 43 per cent of those polled, due to recent policy reversals, such as the Carbon Tax, mandatory treatment, and decriminalization.
BC Conservatives: People want change but fear the unknown
John Rustad, the least known of all the leaders and the dark-horse (yes, we can still say that) challenger seems to gain in popularity by inches with each poll. We’ll see if that holds after his “so-called vaccine” conversation with the disenfranchised anti-vaxxer provincial employees hits the public consciousness.
While the two major parties are neck-and-neck provincially in most polls, a Sept. 29 Mainstreet poll had the Conservatives 4 per cent ahead of the NDP (46 versus 42 per cent). The poll also indicated Conservatives had gained unexpected ground in some Vancouver and northern Vancouver Island ridings. Other polls show Conservatives leading in the Fraser Valley, and southern and northern BC.
Conservatives are viewed as the best party to handle economic growth and public safety. But their leader, Rustad has exceptionally polarized support, which means the NDP efforts over the last few months (particularly the last week) painting Conservative candidates as unhinged kook-a-doodles and extremists might be paying off. Slightly more than half of those polled agree Rustad is ‘too extreme.”
The Conservative brain trust may want to drill down into that public feedback: figure out how to capitalize on the strengths and change the narrative on the latter. Letting Rustad talk for himself might be a start.
BC Green Party: Imagine if they won a few seats
The Greens are polling in third place with about 10 per cent support – down about six points from their 2020 election results. They have lost some voters to the Conservatives but remain a factor, especially on environmental and social issues and in ridings where they may siphon enough votes off the NDP to send a Conservative to the legislature. As well, or alternatively, they could possibly elect two or more MLAs, although current polling says not.
In a bit of a twist, some polling suggests Green voters might strategically cast their vote with the Conservatives depending how motivated they are to take down the current NDP government.
With so many polarizing issues at play, it’s hard to know which ones will leap to the forefront as the campaign unfolds, and which will ultimately be deciding issues for voters when they’re alone in the ballot box.
The Green vote may become more important as the election process accelerates. If Green leader Sonia Furstenau performs well in the upcoming televised leaders debate, as she did in 2020, she will be a strong counterpoint to Eby and Rustad and could deliver a well-timed popularity bump to her candidates in the homestretch of the campaign.
Top issues for voters: from the polls
According to a Sept. 5 Angus Reid poll, a third of British Columbians don’t think the three parties are a good choice to manage any of their top seven issues. On the flip side, this means a third of voters are not restricted by party loyalties and so are prospects that might be won over by any party.
Cost of Living: It’s the top concern for British Columbians, with 70 per cent saying the NDP government has performed poorly. The Conservatives are seen as the best party to handle this issue by a plurality of voters.
Healthcare: Covers a wide range of complex issues, but remains near the top of the list with 65 per cent saying the NDP has performed poorly. That being said, the NDP are still seen as slightly better than the Conservatives to manage healthcare (35 per cent to 31).
Housing Affordability: The cost of a place to live remains a critical issue, with 72 per cent criticizing the NDP's performance. Both the NDP and Conservatives are seen as potential leaders on this issue, with a slight edge for the Conservatives.
Public Safety and Crime: Concern for public safety is felt province-wide. The Conservatives are viewed as the best party to handle this issue, with a 14-point lead over the NDP.
A surprising tale
Many electoral boundaries have been redrawn around the province to reflect population increases. New ridings added in urban areas may significantly change the make up of a previously secure seat, and an overall tight race in popular vote between the NDP and Conservatives, the outcome remains quite uncertain. Compared to previous elections, environmental policies, including the carbon tax and LNG development, have not weighed heavily in the debate so far.
When it comes to issues, last week’s polling tells a surprising tale – nearly a third of British Columbians think none of the parties can handle any of the issues, across the board [yellow highlight on chart below].
When combined with polling data from the beginning of the month that says at least 2/3 of BC residents believe the NDP have done a poor job of handling ‘all’, repeat ALL, the important issues.
Given poor performance rating of the NDP across the board, it’s surprising the Conservatives aren’t doing better. For most people, a new party represents uncertainty, but it’s also clear the NDP are using the ‘too extreme’ message to effectively dampen enthusiasm for change.
So the adage goes… BC residents may get what they vote for, not what they want.
Keep yer head down, it’s a real merde melee
Time for your clickbait update.
Thanks to the now defunct BC United team, a big data dump of mostly social media comments, likes, unsavoury posts, etc by various BC Conservative candidates landed on CKNW’s Jas Johal’s desk last week. We’ll leave all the mucking and raking to others and just shotgun the raw files into the court of public opinion so you can form your own opinions of the content (and we don’t have to actually slog through it).
The NDP are making hay of this trove of maybe-in-hindsight, ill-advised utterances. And on Sept. 28, the Premier penned a letter to Rustad calling on him to fire six candidates who endorsed “extremist, hateful and fringe views” and promoted “bigotry, disinformation, and dangerous conspiracy theories.”
Some of these exchanges are serious - hate and bigotry both have the potential to be criminal offences. But much of this reads a bit too breathless to be newsworthy. At the rate the NDP was firing off these missives initially – several times a day – it felt like an aggressive attempt to distract everyone from intelligent discussion and robust debate on the very real and troubling issues we are dealing with.
Todd Corrigall has been a captive audience of the latest news cycle and he thinks it’s just humans proving they are not perfect: surprise-surprise everyone.
We at Northern Beat have decided to put our heads down until the finish line, toiling like slaves in a salt mine, filling our wheelbarrows with data and research, analysis and summary; dumping each load on our site so that by election day there will be a mini-mountain of resources at your disposal to help you mark your X with confidence, wherever it lands.
Back on the election front…
BC Housing Minister under scrutiny
A couple of hours after Eby’s you-should-fire-your-candidates, Mr. Rustad, missive, Rustad sent his rival a letter too.
The letter followed up on a request penned by Conservative star candidate Elenore Sturko, who on On Sept. 25, wrote to the Registrar of Lobbyists asking for an investigation into potential conflict of interest involving Housing Minister Ravi Kahlon and his two siblings.
Kahlon’s sister, Parm Kahlon, is co-founder of a government relations lobbying firm that represents Renewal Development, which the Conservatives said the minister publicly endorsed last spring.
While Sunny Kahlon, the minister’s brother, owns a development company currently working on a major housing project in the Victoria area, according to Sturko.
Kahlon denied there were any conflicts, calling the situation a “non-issue.”
The CEO of Renewal Development tweeted about “my good friend Ravi Kahlon” in November 2022. Then, last spring, Conservatives say Minister Kahlon publicly mused about how his ministry might partner with Renewal Developments. As recently as Sept. 18, the company was working with the ministry to deliver housing to the Sechelt Band, according to a BC Housing post on X.
Parm Kahlon’s lobbying firm reportedly told 1130 City News her company did not lobby the BC government on behalf of Renewal Development in its bid to work with BC Housing.
Demonstrating unusually rapid turnaround for an arm of government – let alone in one in the middle of an election when ministries all but shut down – the BC lobbyist registrar said today it will not investigate the complaint.
Which may sound like a done deal, but i’m hearing otherwise.
No one is calling anyone a snollygoster yet, but this BC Housing situation is developing a certain odeur de je ne sais quoi.
Northern Beat election posts
If you haven’t been over to our website in the past few days allow us to fill you in on a few interesting stories and posts we added this week as part of our Big Beautiful BC Election Coverage.
What are the chances
There are about 50 Independent or unaffiliated candidates running in the election, six of them with a higher than usual chance of getting elected because they’re incumbent MLAs (five former BC United, one former NDP). Given how close the race is between the top two parties, Jeff Davies wondered if BC might end up in a similar situation to 2017, when three BC Greens broke the electoral jog jam by aligning with the NDP to form a minority government against the BC Liberals.
Could it happen again? Jeff reports.
Mining, a drug strategy and a plea from the NE
Mining is BC’s biggest resource industry, making up more than 30 per cent of our exports and employing more than 35,000 people. After all three parties announced their mining platforms last week. Rob Shaw had a look through the promises and asked a couple industry reps to weigh in.
Keith Norbury fact-checked the Green Party’s drug policy strategy. He came up with some good news and bad news.
Tania Finch has a message for candidates in Peace River North where conservatism is so popular they need two candidates to meet demand.
FactCheck and Policy Primers
Don’t forget to check out our patent-pending FactCheck and Policy Primer pages, where you can find an evolving and expanding selection of truthy posts and referenced explainers for heart-stopping topics like housing, DRIPA, health premiums, drug policy, the phantom $4 billion cut that isn’t, 19 problems with the community benefits agreement, and oh so much more.
Speaking of juicy topics, we have many more under development – it’s a veritable construction zone over here (non-unionized – I couldn’t afford my wages otherwise) – so if there’s something you’d like researched, a morsel of data or an outrageous-sounding claim you’d like us to investigate, send us an email or reach out on X [@FranYanor or @BeatNorthern]!
Thank you to everyone for their suggestions so far. We’re furiously adding to these and other election features every day and will push them out the door as fast as we can until Oct. 19.
That’s it for now. Thanks for dropping in.
Please consider subscribing or upgrading to paid to to join our battle in the dark arts arena of BC politics!
Until next time (probably later in the week) stay safe and stay informed.
Your turn with the hose…
Fran
Comments and brilliant ideas, contact Fran@NorthernBeat.ca
For brain calisthenics, read NorthernBeat.ca
Note: this post was edited Oct. 1 to reflect new information about the BC Housing posts, which have now been removed.
An excellent summary …and fun! 👏👏👏